Eskom Load‑Shedding Forecast – 1 Nov 2025: Winter Outlook Again Shows Zero Cuts if Unplanned <13 GW!

Eskom Winter Load-Shedding Forecast – As South Africa prepares for another challenging winter season, all eyes are once again on Eskom’s load-shedding outlook for 2025. Encouragingly, the power utility’s latest forecast, released on November 1, 2025, projects that the country can potentially avoid load-shedding altogether—provided unplanned breakdowns stay below the 13GW threshold. While this news brings a glimmer of hope to households and businesses alike, the situation remains fragile, underscoring the need for careful power usage and continued infrastructure stability.

Eskom has been under immense pressure in recent years, with rolling blackouts becoming a frustrating norm. However, improved generation capacity, increased maintenance discipline, and strategic power procurement have begun to shift the tide. The forecast comes amid heightened concern over winter demand spikes, particularly during early mornings and evenings when heating appliances and geysers drive up consumption. Eskom’s current energy availability factor (EAF) and reduced levels of unplanned outages offer a ray of hope that the country may finally enjoy a more stable winter.

Nonetheless, there’s no room for complacency. The winter forecast operates on several assumptions, particularly around maintenance schedules and breakdown containment. Any deviation from these could result in a return to higher stages of load-shedding. This article delves into the key highlights of Eskom’s winter 2025 forecast, the risks that could still lead to power cuts, and what this means for households and industry.

Key Highlights from Eskom’s 2025 Winter Outlook

Eskom’s Winter Outlook shows a cautiously optimistic scenario if unplanned outages remain controlled.

• No load-shedding is anticipated if unplanned outages stay below 13,000 MW.
• Between 13,000–14,000 MW unplanned outages may result in Stage 1 load-shedding.
• Above 15,000 MW, higher stages (Stage 2 and beyond) could be triggered.
• The base scenario is modeled on an average EAF of 60%.
• Demand is expected to peak between 33,000 MW and 34,500 MW during cold fronts.
• The Koeberg Unit 2 is scheduled to return to service by mid-winter.
• Additional capacity from IPPs and emergency reserves is factored in.

Scenario Description	Unplanned Losses (MW)	Forecasted Load-Shedding Stage	Assumptions
Base Case	<13,000	None	Stable generation, Koeberg return
Moderate Risk	13,000–14,000	Stage 1	Minor delays in planned return
Elevated Risk	14,000–15,000	Stage 2	Some maintenance setbacks
High-Risk Scenario	15,000–16,000	Stage 3–4	Severe unplanned breakdowns
Emergency Scenario	>17,000	Stage 5–6	Grid instability, extreme weather
Best Case	11,000–12,000	None	High EAF, efficient grid management
Koeberg + IPP Benefit Case	<13,000	None	Returns aligned with forecast

Understanding Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF)

The EAF is a critical metric that directly influences how Eskom manages supply versus demand.

• The EAF measures the percentage of the generation fleet available for use.
• In 2024, Eskom’s EAF hovered around 55% due to aging infrastructure and delays in return-to-service.
• For 2025, Eskom projects an average EAF of 60% for winter operations.
• A higher EAF means more stable supply and lower reliance on emergency reserves.

Why the EAF Matters for Load-Shedding

A few percentage points in EAF can mean the difference between blackouts and continuity.

• A 1% increase in EAF equates to approximately 470 MW more generation.
• If Eskom maintains a 60% EAF, it can comfortably supply up to 32,000–33,000 MW.
• At 62% EAF, the country would have a healthy reserve margin during peak winter loads.
• But a drop below 58% EAF could escalate risk to Stage 2–3 load-shedding levels.

Demand Forecast and Winter Peak Analysis

Winter electricity demand patterns put significant stress on Eskom’s generation capacity.

• Average daily winter demand: 30,000–32,500 MW.
• Peak demand during cold snaps: up to 34,500 MW.
• Early mornings (6am–9am) and evenings (5pm–9pm) are high-risk periods.
• Load-shedding decisions are often made based on rolling 48-hour demand forecasts.

Regional Demand Distribution Trends

Different provinces contribute differently to peak load and face varied impacts.

Province	Peak Demand (MW)	Risk Level	Notes
Gauteng	6,500	High	Dense population, high consumption
KwaZulu-Natal	4,100	Moderate	Industrial + residential mix
Western Cape	3,600	Moderate	Winter heating increases usage
Eastern Cape	2,700	Low	Lower industrial load
Limpopo	2,100	Moderate	Mining sector impacts variability
Mpumalanga	2,300	High	Intensive mining and manufacturing
Free State	1,900	Low	Smaller load base

Contingency Planning and Emergency Reserves

Even with a favorable outlook, Eskom has prepared fallback measures.

• Diesel-powered Open Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) are on standby.
• Eskom has over 2,000 MW in emergency reserves.
• IPPs contribute about 3,500 MW during peak hours.
• Demand-side management programs to reduce peak pressure.

Eskom’s Strategic Interventions

Key programs Eskom is rolling out this winter to prevent blackouts.

1. Fast-tracking Koeberg Unit 2 reactivation by July 2025.
2. Prioritizing planned maintenance in shoulder months (March–May).
3. Expanding contracts with Independent Power Producers.
4. Enhancing communication with municipalities for load curtailment.
5. Increasing grid monitoring and response capabilities.

Public Engagement and Awareness Campaigns

Consumer cooperation is vital to sustaining a blackout-free winter.

• Eskom has launched a “Save Watts for Winter” initiative.
• Real-time notifications on EskomSePush and other platforms.
• Educational drives about peak-hour usage and geyser management.
• Voluntary load-reduction campaigns with industries and large users.

Municipal Coordination and Smart Load Management

Municipalities are being integrated into Eskom’s smart management strategy.

• Smart meters help track and reduce usage in high-risk zones.
• Municipalities are being supported with technical assistance.
• Load curtailment programs are being offered for industrial clients.
• Targeted rolling blackouts remain a last resort if grid stability is threatened.

Load Curtailment Program	Participation	Energy Saved (MW)	Region Focus
Industrial Demand Response	45 companies	420	Gauteng, KZN
Municipal Load Shift	38 municipalities	360	Eastern & Western Cape
Smart Geyser Switch-off	75,000 homes	110	Nationwide
Commercial Demand Control	60 malls/offices	180	Johannesburg, Durban
Load Limiting Pilot	20,000 homes	75	Tshwane, eThekwini

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: Is load-shedding completely off the table this winter?
No, it depends on whether unplanned outages exceed 13GW. If breakdowns rise above that level, load-shedding may be implemented in stages.

Q2: What is Eskom’s biggest risk during winter?
Unexpected breakdowns at major power stations and delays in returning units to service.

Q3: What can households do to help avoid blackouts?
Limit usage during peak hours, use energy-efficient appliances, and participate in Eskom’s voluntary programs.

Q4: Will the Koeberg nuclear plant be back online in time?
According to Eskom, Koeberg Unit 2 is expected to return to service by mid-winter, adding about 920 MW to the grid.

Q5: Are there enough emergency reserves if demand spikes?
Yes, Eskom has 2,000 MW in diesel reserves and up to 3,500 MW from IPPs for emergency scenarios.

Q6: Which areas are most at risk for load-shedding?
Urban centers with high consumption like Gauteng and Mpumalanga are more vulnerable, especially during peak hours.

Q7: How can businesses prepare?
Adopt backup systems, participate in load-reduction agreements, and avoid high-load processes during peak windows.

Q8: Are smart meters making a difference?
Yes, smart meters allow real-time monitoring and have helped Eskom and municipalities better manage consumption patterns.