Eskom’s Coal Crisis : South Africa’s electricity woes may soon intensify, as Eskom reports its coal reserves have dropped to their lowest point in 12 weeks. The September 2025 data paints a concerning picture for the national power utility, potentially triggering Stage 2 load shedding in the coming days if supply constraints persist. With economic recovery still fragile and winter electricity demand peaking, this development couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Eskom, which relies heavily on coal to generate over 80% of its electricity, has flagged urgent supply issues across several of its key power stations. Reduced coal deliveries from major suppliers due to logistical delays, mining output disruptions, and ongoing maintenance backlogs have led to dangerously low stock levels. The utility now faces pressure to stabilize coal inputs or risk deeper power cuts nationwide.
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The impact of coal shortages extends beyond just potential blackouts. It poses threats to industrial production, residential comfort, and overall economic stability. Energy experts warn that if intervention isn’t swift—whether through emergency coal procurement, optimized logistics, or power demand reduction—the nation could see sustained and more severe stages of load shedding.
Current State of Coal Stock Levels at Eskom
Eskom’s coal supply situation has deteriorated significantly over the past month, with most major stations running below minimum threshold levels.
- Total coal stock across Eskom: 36.2 days (down from 44.1 days in August)
- Minimum required coal threshold: 20 days per station
- Stations below critical stock levels: 7 out of 15
- Major logistical bottlenecks from Mpumalanga mines
- Coal supply contracts delayed due to maintenance shutdowns
- Urgent procurement measures under discussion with private suppliers
Power Stations with Critically Low Coal Stock
| Power Station | Current Days of Stock | Required Minimum | Shortfall (Days) | Primary Supplier | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matla | 12 | 20 | -8 | Exxaro | High Risk |
| Kendal | 14 | 20 | -6 | Seriti | Critical |
| Tutuka | 16 | 20 | -4 | Wescoal | At Risk |
| Duvha | 18 | 20 | -2 | Glencore | Monitoring |
| Lethabo | 21 | 20 | +1 | Sasol | Stable |
| Medupi | 23 | 20 | +3 | Exxaro | Acceptable |
| Kriel | 15 | 20 | -5 | South32 | Critical |
| Arnot | 19 | 20 | -1 | Various (small miners) | Monitoring |
Possible Load Shedding Stages If Situation Persists
As the coal crisis deepens, Eskom is preparing contingency plans that may affect millions of households and businesses across the country.
- Stage 1: Minor power cuts during peak evening hours
- Stage 2: Two-hour outages across affected areas daily
- Stage 3: Up to four hours of blackouts spread throughout the day
- Stage 4: Emergency cuts of 6+ hours in high-demand zones
- Municipalities have been notified to prepare for escalation
- Essential services (hospitals, water facilities) to receive prioritized supply
Expected Impact on Sectors
| Sector | Risk Level | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | High | Interrupted production, missed export orders |
| Retail | Medium | Limited operating hours, spoilage risks |
| Agriculture | High | Irrigation failures, cold storage disruption |
| Education | Medium | School closures, online learning interruptions |
| Health Services | Low | Backup generators in place |
| Public Transport | Medium | Reduced operations at night |
| ICT & Telecoms | Low | UPS systems mitigate short outages |
Reasons Behind the Coal Supply Bottleneck
Multiple underlying factors are contributing to the coal shortfall, many of which are systemic and require urgent strategic intervention.
- Reduced mining output due to unplanned equipment failures
- Delays in rail transport from Mpumalanga coal fields to stations
- Backlogs in coal contract renewals with key suppliers
- Eskom’s delayed payments to logistics contractors
- Weather-related disruptions in certain mining zones
Long-Term Issues Affecting Eskom’s Coal Supply Chain
| Issue | Description |
|---|---|
| Ageing rail infrastructure | Frequent breakdowns and slow deliveries |
| Mine closures | Smaller mines shut down due to regulation or costs |
| Supplier dependence | Overreliance on few large mining companies |
| Contract mismanagement | Delays and disputes in renewals and pricing |
| Coal theft and corruption | Losses during transit and manipulated stock data |
Government and Eskom’s Emergency Response Plan
The Department of Public Enterprises and Eskom have initiated several steps to mitigate the crisis and prevent widespread blackouts.
- Mobilizing road transport contractors to replace rail shortfalls
- Fast-tracking contracts with junior coal miners for emergency supply
- Engaging Treasury to secure funding for rapid procurement
- Directives to prioritize coal delivery to high-risk stations
- Load management instructions issued to industrial consumers
Public Recommendations to Conserve Electricity
- Turn off non-essential appliances during peak hours
- Use alternative heating solutions where possible
- Install energy-efficient bulbs and smart power strips
- Reduce water geyser usage to evening or non-peak hours
- Delay washing machine and dishwasher cycles to off-peak periods
Future Outlook: Can South Africa Avoid Stage 4 Load Shedding?
Analysts warn that unless urgent improvements occur in the coal supply chain, South Africa could be staring down the barrel of deeper load shedding stages, especially if weather remains cold or infrastructure failures continue.
Short-Term Forecast (Next 30 Days)
| Week | Load Shedding Risk | Expected Coal Replenishment | Likely Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | High | Low | Stage 2 |
| Wk 2 | High | Medium | Stage 2 |
| Wk 3 | Medium | Medium | Stage 1 |
| Wk 4 | Low | High | No Cuts |
Strategies Under Review for Long-Term Energy Security
The coal crisis once again raises questions about South Africa’s over-reliance on fossil fuels and the urgent need to diversify its energy mix.
Proposed Measures by Energy Experts
- Accelerate transition to renewables like solar and wind
- Invest in clean coal technologies for improved efficiency
- Upgrade rail and road transport logistics
- Improve stockpile management with digital monitoring
- Encourage industrial users to adopt off-grid solutions
Energy Storage and Alternative Backup Systems
South Africa’s energy policy is gradually embracing hybrid solutions to combat dependency on coal. Key solutions being explored include:
- Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) for short-term peak demand
- Microgrid development in rural and industrial areas
- Expansion of Independent Power Producer (IPP) program
- Domestic solar incentive packages for households
Policy Shifts in Progress
- Revision of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to phase down coal
- Expanded procurement rounds for solar and wind IPPs
- Tariff restructuring to fund grid upgrades and cleaner power
- Public-private partnerships for infrastructure modernization
Table: Renewable Energy Projects in Pipeline (2025–2028)
| Project Name | Type | Capacity (MW) | Status | Region | Completion Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karoo Solar Farm | Solar | 100 | Approved | Northern Cape | 2026 |
| East Wind Corridor | Wind | 200 | Under Review | Eastern Cape | 2027 |
| Limpopo PV Cluster | Solar | 150 | Contract Signed | Limpopo | 2025 |
| Drakensberg Hydro | Hydro | 75 | Construction | KwaZulu-Natal | 2028 |
| Western Grid Storage | BESS | 120 | Planning | Western Cape | 2027 |
| Mpumalanga Biogas | Biogas | 30 | Approved | Mpumalanga | 2026 |
| Gauteng Rooftop Solar | Solar | 50 | Pilot Phase | Gauteng | 2025 |
| Midlands Wind Park | Wind | 180 | Feasibility | Free State | 2028 |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Why is Eskom’s coal stock so low right now?
A combination of logistical issues, supply delays from miners, and infrastructure failures have led to reduced coal deliveries in recent weeks.
Q2: What is Stage 2 load shedding?
Stage 2 involves scheduled power outages that last for about two hours at a time, twice a day, across affected areas.
Q3: Is this coal shortage temporary or long-term?
Short-term in its current form, but it stems from long-standing issues that need systemic change to avoid recurrence.
Q4: Which power stations are at most risk?
Stations like Matla, Kendal, and Kriel currently have the lowest stock levels and are at the highest operational risk.
Q5: What can the public do to help?
Consumers are encouraged to reduce energy use during peak hours and adopt more energy-efficient practices.
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Q6: Is there any risk of a total blackout?
Currently, no full blackout is expected. Eskom’s system operations team actively manages the grid to prevent a national failure.
