No Loadshedding – For millions of South Africans, the word “loadshedding” has become a dreaded part of daily life. Power cuts have disrupted businesses, households, and even essential services for over a decade. But now, for the first time in months, there’s a flicker of hope. On July 18, 2025, Eskom confirmed that if unplanned breakdowns remain below 13,000MW (13GW), the country could enjoy consecutive days without loadshedding. This announcement has triggered a wave of cautious optimism across communities and industries. As the nation braces for another cold snap, Eskom’s capacity margin has slightly improved due to better plant performance, lower demand, and increased contributions from renewable energy. However, the utility company remains under intense pressure to maintain stability through the winter, where demand typically spikes. While the 13GW threshold might sound technical, it’s essentially the tipping point: if fewer power stations fail and demand stays manageable, rolling blackouts could be paused. But will it last? Or is this just a temporary win in a much larger energy crisis? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers, risks, promises, and plans that could decide South Africa’s power future.
No Loadshedding – What Does Staying Below 13GW Really Mean?
Eskom has set a key target of keeping unplanned outages under 13,000MW – the point at which supply meets demand without resorting to loadshedding.
Key Facts You Should Know:
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- Eskom has over 47,000MW of installed generation capacity.
- But only around 29,000MW is typically available on a good day.
- Unplanned breakdowns often exceed 15,000MW, causing severe loadshedding.
- The 13GW mark is the safety zone where loadshedding can be avoided.
- South Africa needs ~27,000-30,000MW to meet daily winter demand.
- Renewables and IPPs contribute about 5,000MW regularly.
- Eskom plans to maintain this “safe zone” through disciplined plant maintenance and diesel reserves.
No Loadshedding – Recent Eskom Generation Stats (July 2025)
Below is a breakdown of Eskom’s energy availability and outages as of July 16, 2025.
| Parameter | Value (MW) | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Total Installed Capacity | 47,053 MW | Fixed |
| Available Capacity (Best Day) | 30,200 MW | Ideal Conditions |
| Average Daily Demand (Winter) | 29,500 MW | High Season Demand |
| Renewables + IPP Contribution | 5,100 MW | Growing Contribution |
| Diesel Reserve Available | 2,800 MW | Emergency Use |
| Current Unplanned Outages | 12,790 MW | Below 13GW Threshold |
| Required to Avoid Loadshedding | <13,000 MW | Currently Achieved |
How Long Can the No Loadshedding Window Last?
While Eskom claims that no loadshedding is possible when breakdowns are under 13GW, several variables can reverse this progress in days.
Key Risk Factors in the Coming Weeks
Let’s explore the most critical risk areas that could ruin this fragile recovery.
- Ageing Power Plants: Nearly 40% of Eskom’s coal fleet is over 30 years old.
- Delayed Maintenance: Some essential units were deferred during earlier load cycles.
- Cold Weather Spike: Demand often surges in cold fronts, pushing the system beyond its safe limit.
- Diesel Shortages: Diesel generators are expensive and supply is often tight in winter.
- Sabotage and Theft: Cable theft and internal sabotage remain an active risk.
Will Renewable Energy Help Maintain the 13GW Threshold?
With nearly 5,000MW regularly coming from solar, wind, and hydro sources, renewable energy is now a significant pillar in Eskom’s balancing act.
Breakdown of Renewable Contributions
| Source | Approx. Daily Contribution | Role in Stability |
|---|---|---|
| Wind Farms | 2,100 MW | Peak Evening Stabilizer |
| Solar PV | 1,800 MW | Peak Daytime Filler |
| Hydro & Pumped | 1,100 MW | Reserve + Flex Dispatch |
| Total Renewables | 5,000 MW | Crucial for Load Support |
These figures can fluctuate based on weather, but they help ease pressure on coal plants during key demand periods.
New Projects Expected in 2025-2026
According to DMRE and the IPP Office, multiple new clean energy projects are scheduled to come online over the next 12 months.
- 10 new wind farms approved under REIPPP Bid Window 6
- 7 solar parks in Northern Cape set to begin production by October 2025
- Battery storage facilities to add 360MW of reserve capacity
- Green hydrogen trial projects in Port Elizabeth and Durban
Upcoming Renewable Projects Timeline
| Project Name | Type | Capacity | Location | Expected Commissioning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalahari Sun Park | Solar | 250 MW | Northern Cape | Oct 2025 |
| Wild Coast Wind Array | Wind | 380 MW | Eastern Cape | Dec 2025 |
| Cedar Ridge Battery Backup | Storage | 120 MW | Western Cape | Jan 2026 |
| Green Hydrogen Demo Plant | Hydrogen | Pilot | Port Elizabeth | March 2026 |
| Mpumalanga Solar Project | Solar | 300 MW | Mpumalanga | Nov 2025 |
| Karoo Wind Tower | Wind | 310 MW | Northern Cape | Jan 2026 |
| Durban Metro Storage Hub | Battery | 240 MW | KZN | Feb 2026 |
Can Consumers Help Eskom Stay Under 13GW?
Yes — household and business behavior plays a vital role. By reducing unnecessary electricity use during peak hours, South Africans can ease the burden on Eskom’s fragile grid.
Smart Actions for Citizens
- Avoid using heaters and geysers during 5PM – 9PM.
- Switch to LED lights and smart plugs.
- Turn off pool pumps, air conditioning, and large appliances during peak hours.
- Install solar water heaters where possible.
- Use load-limiting smart meters if available.
Eskom’s Load Forecast Tools You Can Use
Eskom and its partners provide public tools and apps to track load forecasts and plan electricity use wisely.
- EskomSePush App: Real-time loadshedding alerts by area
- Eskom Load Forecast Portal: www.eskom.co.za
- Municipal WhatsApp Hotlines: Available in Cape Town, Joburg, Tshwane
Departments and Agencies Involved in Oversight
South Africa’s power future is being shaped not just by Eskom but a number of government departments and energy regulators.
| Department/Agency | Role in Power Stability | Contact Information |
|---|---|---|
| Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) | Policy decisions, IPP approvals, energy roadmap | www.energy.gov.za / 012 406 7799 |
| Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd | Core electricity provider | www.eskom.co.za / 08600 37566 |
| National Energy Regulator (NERSA) | Pricing, licensing, and compliance | www.nersa.org.za / 012 401 4600 |
| IPP Office | Renewable energy procurement | www.ipp-projects.co.za |
| South African Weather Service | Forecasts affecting demand and solar/wind output | www.weathersa.co.za |
| National Treasury | Funding of energy infrastructure | www.treasury.gov.za |
| SANEDI | Energy efficiency, innovation programs | www.sanedi.org.za |
As of now, South Africa stands at a hopeful threshold — but history has taught us that Eskom’s successes are fragile. If citizens reduce their peak usage, government continues investing in renewables, and Eskom avoids major breakdowns, the country may finally enjoy a lights-on future. Until then, every kilowatt saved matters.
FAQs of No Loadshedding
Q1. Is it confirmed that there will be no loadshedding in July 2025?
A: There is no guarantee, but if unplanned breakdowns remain under 13,000MW, Eskom can avoid loadshedding on a day-to-day basis.
Q2. What is causing fewer power station breakdowns now?
A: Improved maintenance planning, less strain from demand, and more renewable power are helping reduce pressure.
Q3. What happens if outages go above 13GW again?
A: Eskom will resume loadshedding according to their stage system, possibly up to Stage 3 or Stage 4.
Q4. Will this “no loadshedding” condition continue into summer?
A: Summer demand is lower, so if Eskom maintains performance, the chance of loadshedding will be even less.
Q5. Can battery storage help Eskom?
A: Yes, battery projects add reserve capacity that helps stabilize the grid in case of sudden failures.
